Why Winning the Lottery is More Predictable than your Agile Project – Daniel Vacanti

“When will it be done?” That is the first question your customers ask you once you start work for them. And, for the most part, it is the only thing they are interested in until you deliver. Whether your process is predictable or not is judged by the accuracy of your answer. Think about how many times you have been asked that question and think how many times you have been wrong. Now think about how much harder it is to answer that question when practicing Agile at scale.

It turns out that the reason you are so often wrong is that you have a better chance of winning the lottery than of making a decently accurate prediction about your Agile initiative. A large contributor to this problem is the fact that you have been taught to collect the wrong metrics, implement the wrong policies, and make the wrong decisions. You didn’t have anyone helping you figure out which metrics really matter.

Until now.

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